Wednesday, July 26, 2006
Lebanon: the final episode
The next two or three weeks are likely bring about an international agreement on the following:
- a cease-fire
- partial disarming of Hizbullah
- return of Sheba Farms to Lebanese or syrian control
- exchange of prisoners
- a buffer zone to be policed by international and Lebanese armed forces
- an international aid package for displaced Lebanese and the economy
Syria will be politically sidelined but secretly rewarded for backing off from supporting Hizbullah militarily during the current crisis. The reward may be bigger for a pledge not to supply Hizbullah with arms in the future.
Iran will be practically ignored as a dialogue is unlikely to yield practical results.
Hizbullah will be weakened but still remain a dangerous fighting force until it is completely disarmed. But that's another day's march.