Saturday, July 22, 2006

And on the 12th day of bombing..

The Hizbullah Chief, Sheikh Nasrallah, warned on the 3rd day that his missiles could reach targets well beyond Haifa (Tel Aviv?). So why hasn't he used them? Lebanon has been flattened and the Israelis are after him and his men, so what has he got to lose now?

Most probably he was bluffing, as many ragtag Arab chiefs have done before him since 1948. Or, perhaps he was hoping that Syria and Iran would replenish his stockpile and extend his missile range as the Israelis advanced towards his positions.

Syria and Iran would not have been foolish enough to supply Hizbullah with long range missiles. Doing so would have meant losing control of both Hizbullah and the political initiative. Israel must have known this and has acted quickly to cut off all conceivable supply routes to Hizbullah at an enormous cost to the Lebanese nation.

Hizbullah, Iran and Syria have already lost this battle.

They will probably live on to fight another "strategic" one against Zionists, Crusaders and imperialists, but always ensuring that they sacrifice someone else's children in the name of their Islam, resistance and steadfastness.

For the true Lebanese patriot, the alternative is not defeatism and submission to foreign powers but realism, social justice and political freedom. Hizbullah's raison d'etre has been to deliver social justice to the long-neglected Shia community in Lebanon. Both Iran and Syria are to blame for turning it into a ruthless fighting machine and a state within a state. Israel must also bear responsibility for the militancy of Hizbullah by pounding Shia villages and causing much human misery in the South of Lebanon for decades.

Since 2000, there has been absolutely no justification for Hizbullah as an armed force but, unfortunately,every reason for it to continue as a social movement in the eyes of the Shia community.

Left well alone, the Lebanese nation is more than capable of building a decent and progressive society and a vibrant economy.

The Lebanese deserve not just sympathy but the solid support of every honest and fairminded human being on earth.

Condoleezza Rice? Please spare us the theatrics, stay at home and practise your piano.


Anonymous said...

The tv here (i am israeli) screened a clip from one of the bombers near beirut. The bomb hits a rocket launcher and by freak accident the rockets shoots itself into the air. They said it was that UFO that was initially reported as downed israeli f-16.

They said they do have these rockets but to hit tel aviv they need to move them south. The bridges and highways are destroyed across the south. Gas stations too. They are struggling with logistics.

Also these kind of rockets can not be shot in one minute. They need to be prepaired. It takes IDF planes 5 minutes to detect and destroy a launcher. That s why only katyushas are used.

This is the answer to your question why he still did nt do what he promised. Technically he has this capability. Practically its a problem to get these rockets to the southern border or to operate them properly there.

Anonymous said...

I just want to add that hezbollah was effective as a resistance force equiped with light weapons and katyushas. Its admitted in israel that they are doing a good job when they play this role. But fighting guerilla war does nt require much sofistication. It also does nt require keeping a big army on standby.

When it comes to using these rockets , which are quite huge, they overplay their hand.

And defending a country has little to do with resisting foreign occupation. Hezbollah is uncapable of defending a thing in lebanon. Defending a country is very different from staging an ambush on somebody once a month.

The same is with kidnapping soldiers. Its very problematic a thing when u have two ministers in the government of your country. Israel knows that chances that their mutilated bodies would be discovered by the side of a highway are close to zero( this does nt mean they are not worried for them). So they can take time with the offensive. It would be a problem for nasrallah is anything happens to the captured soldiers. Its a sort of liability for him now.

In short it does nt look like hezbollah understands all these subtleties. They probably never been too smart but this time it was an obvious blunder.

Philip I said...

Anonymous: If you are right and Iran and Syria were stupid enough to supply Hizbullah with long range missiles, they must have also underestimated Israeli intelligence the capacity of the Israeli airforce to prevent Hizbullah mobilizing these missiles to the South.

However, surely if you are going to launch long range missiles you would want the flexibility of launching them from almost anywhere in Lebanon and you would want to be able to hide them anywhere. So personally I am not convinced that Hizballah has long range missiles. Just as well.

Anonymous said...

The missile that was confused with IDF plane burning over beirut was clearly long range missile. The same way as one on a clip that IDF said the missile came from . I could see it was a big truck usually used for moving these rockets.

They can shoot them from beirut but they won t be able to produce this 'maabada maabada haifa' effect. Also we (i am from tel aviv) ve been warned in advance that they may strike as far as tel aviv. So i assume they have information about these missiles being deplyed in lebanon.

Also many people say they miscalculated something about our reaction. They probably did nt expect that in 3 days the whole of the south would be bombed out. Maybe they did nt prepare to face such logistical problems almost immediately.

Anonymous said...

U should understand that many katyusha launchers are hit even before they finish firing. Long range missiles take time to move into positions and make them ready for action. This is simply not a weapon for guerilla armies

Anonymous said...

Let me just summarize the whole thing cause i go to sleep. Hezbollah are apparently quite assholes.

The situation now is very different. We are out of lebanon for years. Lebanon is a country. They, hezbollah, are part of the political structure there.

They lost almost all of their advantages.

They can t defend lebanon with their guerilla tactics when we attack lebanon as a country.

They can t take advantage of this long range weaponry because its simply not for their ability to operate them.

Their kidnappings lose their effectiveness if they can t torture or kill our soldiers they captured at will.

Syrians/iranians won t take these hostages. They want stay out of the mess this idiot started here.

And of course israel does nt mind swapping prisoners if in return it recieves some sort of 1949 ceasefire agreement. Nasrallah was a sort of trying to open a second front there. He may recieve something quite different instead of it.

Arabs may like them or not , they make think nasrallah is a hero but the reality is that lebanon is a country hijacked by a bunch of assholes.

We will eventually stop the offensive and go home leaving him to face his angry countrymen. If the lebanese got just a bit of brain they know what they should with him.

Abu Kareem said...

Philip I,

I fully agree with you. Lebanon's neglect of their Southern Shia brethrens is in large part responsible for HA's popularity. The South saw little of the post civil war reconstruction projects. A state that treats all its citizens equally is a prerequisite for stability.

Jonjo said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Jonjo said...

Have you seen this video

Philip I said...