Saturday, June 25, 2011

Threat of Turkish invasion suffocates Syrian regime

Western powers, through Turkey, have tried hard to persuade Assad to lead a peaceful transition to a genuine multi-party democracy but failed. They are giving him one last chance despite the intransigence of the primitive savages in his extended family.

The alliance of  Western powers, Israel and conservative Sunni Arab governments would like nothing more than to end Iran’s influence in Syria and Lebanon. If this cannot be done peacefully then Turkey will be happy to oblige militarily on behalf of the alliance.

Turkey has welcomed 13,000 Syrian refugees, not just on humanitarian grounds, but also to give the alliance a pretext for military intervention in Syria if necessary. When the regime was left in no doubt about the alliance’s intentions, it moved swiftly to stem the flood of refugees, cutting off all major roads to Turkey in the border region.

The choice given to Assad and his clan was made crystal clear: make way for a democratic government, and we will guarantee your safety, or die. The threat will work but not until  Damascus and Aleppo have seen a massive popular uprising. The regime has maintained a tight grip on both cities and when small protests have erupted in the suburbs they have been dealt with quickly and with less brutality than that inflicted on other towns and villages. The protests will continue to grow each week and the more people are hurt the more widespread the protests will become and the easier it will be for the Western alliance to intervene.

Iran can do little to protect its protégés in the region. The era of igniting conflicts on the Lebanese/Israeli border at will is over. Such attempts will be catastrophic for both the beleaguered Syrian army and Hizbullah. Missiles or no missiles, neither can cope with a three-pronged attack from the south (Israel), the west (naval forces) and the north (Turkey), not to mention aerial bombardment.

The Syrian regime is all but finished; it is only a matter of time before it implodes or is obliterated. If the Assad tribe still possesses an ounce of intelligence and sanity it should yield to the will of the people now and save its own skin. No despot who sleeps on feathers fights to the end against overwhelming force.

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